NFL · spread · Published system
Teams off a 28+ point loss
Team lost its last game by 28 or more. Bet: back them on the spread.
43-36-1 since 2021, ROI after the vig +4.0%.
Published system — made money in 2024-25 to 2025-26 after the vig but lost in 2021-22 to 2023-24. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 43-36-1 (n=79), won 54.4% (95% range 43.5% to 65.0%); break-even 52.3%; ROI after the vig +4.0%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 24-22, -0.6%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 19-14-1, +10.3%
- 2021-22
- 10-10 (n=20), ROI -4.7%
- 2022-23
- 7-3 (n=10), ROI +34.0%
- 2023-24
- 7-9 (n=16), ROI -17.0%
- 2024-25
- 8-9-1 (n=17), ROI -9.4%
- 2025-26
- 11-5 (n=16), ROI +31.3%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
Want these edges in your pocket?
Juiced surfaces today's +EV bets and arbitrage on your phone — same data, sorted by ROI.
For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.