NFL · spread_h1 · Published system
Trailed by 10+ at the half but won the game: fade 1H spread
Trailed by 10+ at the half but won the game: fade 1H spread. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "derived.h1PrevMargin": {"max": -10}, "form.prevResult": "W"} Bet: bet their opponent on the 1st half spread.
16-7-1 since 2023, ROI after the vig +32.4%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig on a small sample (23 bets). Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 16-7-1 (n=23), won 69.6% (95% range 49.1% to 84.4%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +32.4%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 7-1, +67.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 9-6-1, +13.8%
- 2023-24
- 7-1 (n=8), ROI +67.3%
- 2024-25
- 5-1 (n=6), ROI +58.8%
- 2025-26
- 4-5-1 (n=9), ROI -16.2%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.