NFL · spread_h1 · Published system
Trailed by 10+ at the half last game, division game: 1H spread
Trailed by 10+ at the half last game, division game: 1H spread. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "derived.h1PrevMargin": {"max": -10}, "matchup.divisionGame": true} Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
44-35-3 since 2023, ROI after the vig +6.0%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 44-35-3 (n=79), won 55.7% (95% range 44.7% to 66.1%); break-even 52.5%; ROI after the vig +6.0%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 18-13, +10.4%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 26-22-3, +3.1%
- 2023-24
- 18-13 (n=31), ROI +10.4%
- 2024-25
- 12-14-2 (n=26), ROI -12.5%
- 2025-26
- 14-8-1 (n=22), ROI +21.5%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.