NFL · spread_h1 · Published system
Trailed by 10+ at the half last game, favorite: 1H spread
Trailed by 10+ at the half last game, favorite: 1H spread. Machine rule: {"seasonType": "regular", "derived.h1PrevMargin": {"max": -10}, "line.spread": {"lt": 0}} Bet: back them on the 1st half spread.
57-47-2 since 2023, ROI after the vig +4.0%.
Published system — made money 2023–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2023-24 to 2025-26
- 57-47-2 (n=104), won 54.8% (95% range 45.2% to 64.0%); break-even 52.4%; ROI after the vig +4.0%
- Earlier seasons
- 2023-24: 22-17-1, +7.6%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 35-30-1, +1.9%
- 2023-24
- 22-17-1 (n=39), ROI +7.6%
- 2024-25
- 14-18-1 (n=32), ROI -16.3%
- 2025-26
- 21-12 (n=33), ROI +19.6%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2023-24 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.