NHL · moneyline · Published system
Fade road teams after a 3+ goal win
Road team won its previous game by 3 or more; bet the opponent. Bet: bet their opponent on the moneyline.
697-599 since 2021, ROI after the vig +1.7%.
Published system — made money 2021–26 after the vig. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 697-599 (n=1296), won 53.8% (95% range 51.1% to 56.5%); break-even 53.0%; ROI after the vig +1.7%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 427-368, +2.1%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 270-231, +1.1%
- 2021-22
- 140-122 (n=262), ROI -0.7%
- 2022-23
- 139-137 (n=276), ROI -5.4%
- 2023-24
- 148-109 (n=257), ROI +12.9%
- 2024-25
- 148-109 (n=257), ROI +7.1%
- 2025-26
- 122-122 (n=244), ROI -5.3%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.