NHL · moneyline · Published system
Home favorites that are lucky (record beats Pythagorean)
Home favorite whose win pct exceeds its Pythagorean by 6+ points (game 30+); bet the opponent. Bet: bet their opponent on the moneyline.
34-31 since 2021, ROI after the vig +24.9%.
Published system — made money in 2024-25 to 2025-26 after the vig but lost in 2021-22 to 2023-24. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 34-31 (n=65), won 52.3% (95% range 40.4% to 64.0%); break-even 41.8%; ROI after the vig +24.9%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 7-15, -10.0%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 27-16, +42.7%
- 2021-22
- 3-10 (n=13), ROI -25.5%
- 2022-23
- 1-2 (n=3), ROI -3.2%
- 2023-24
- 3-3 (n=6), ROI +20.2%
- 2024-25
- 4-7 (n=11), ROI -20.7%
- 2025-26
- 23-9 (n=32), ROI +64.5%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.