NHL · moneyline · Published system
Home teams under .450 vs teams over .550, as dogs
Home underdog with a sub-.450 record facing a .550+ team (game 20+). Bet: back them on the moneyline.
212-342 since 2021, ROI after the vig +0.7%.
Published system — made money in 2024-25 to 2025-26 after the vig but lost in 2021-22 to 2023-24. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 212-342 (n=554), won 38.3% (95% range 34.3% to 42.4%); break-even 38.0%; ROI after the vig +0.7%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 133-239, -3.3%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 79-103, +8.8%
- 2021-22
- 53-102 (n=155), ROI -7.8%
- 2022-23
- 40-73 (n=113), ROI -0.1%
- 2023-24
- 40-64 (n=104), ROI -0.1%
- 2024-25
- 59-69 (n=128), ROI +18.5%
- 2025-26
- 20-34 (n=54), ROI -13.9%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.