NHL · moneyline · Published system
Home underdogs with the better run/goal differential
Home underdog with a higher Pythagorean win pct than the favorite (game 20+). Bet: back them on the moneyline.
55-50 since 2021, ROI after the vig +9.1%.
Published system — made money in 2024-25 to 2025-26 after the vig but lost in 2021-22 to 2023-24. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 55-50 (n=105), won 52.4% (95% range 42.9% to 61.7%); break-even 47.8%; ROI after the vig +9.1%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 23-24, -0.4%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 32-26, +16.9%
- 2021-22
- 6-6 (n=12), ROI +2.3%
- 2022-23
- 6-10 (n=16), ROI -22.9%
- 2023-24
- 11-8 (n=19), ROI +16.9%
- 2024-25
- 18-15 (n=33), ROI +15.9%
- 2025-26
- 14-11 (n=25), ROI +18.2%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.