NHL · moneyline · Published system
Rested home underdogs vs a team on a back-to-back
Home underdog with 1+ day off; opponent on the 2nd night of a back-to-back. Bet: back them on the moneyline.
131-161 since 2021, ROI after the vig +3.8%.
Published system — made money in 2024-25 to 2025-26 after the vig but lost in 2021-22 to 2023-24. Past results, not a guarantee.
- All bets, 2021-22 to 2025-26
- 131-161 (n=292), won 44.9% (95% range 39.3% to 50.6%); break-even 43.8%; ROI after the vig +3.8%
- Earlier seasons
- 2021-22 to 2023-24: 77-109, -2.2%
- Later seasons
- 2024-25 to 2025-26: 54-52, +14.4%
- 2021-22
- 29-41 (n=70), ROI +1.1%
- 2022-23
- 26-37 (n=63), ROI -2.1%
- 2023-24
- 22-31 (n=53), ROI -6.7%
- 2024-25
- 32-34 (n=66), ROI +10.0%
- 2025-26
- 22-18 (n=40), ROI +21.6%
How this is graded
This system was published elsewhere; we graded its rule on every game it fit in 2021-22 to 2025-26 at our closing consensus prices. ROI is profit per unit staked after the vig. We list a system only if it made money over the whole sample and in both the earlier and later seasons, on 50 or more decided bets. Rates exclude pushes; n counts decided bets.
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For information only. Past results don't predict future ones. 21+. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Trend data from the MoneyLine API.