MLB Stolen Base Arb: 2.61% Guaranteed Profit on FanDuel vs. Novig
Every now and then a sportsbook accidentally leaves money on the table. Today FanDuel did exactly that on a batter stolen bases prop, and the gap between their number and what the market actually believes is wide enough to arb cleanly.
Here's the opportunity, the math, and why it surfaced in the first place.
The Setup
| Side | Book | Price | |------|------|-------| | Over stolen bases | FanDuel | +1260 | | Under stolen bases | Novig | (opposing side) |
Guaranteed profit: 2.61%
FanDuel is posting +1260 on the Over for this batter stolen bases market. That's a long-shot number — implying roughly a 7.3% chance of the Over hitting. Novig's peer-to-peer market, stripped of vig, is pricing the Under at a level that doesn't reconcile with FanDuel's implied probability. When you cover both sides at the right stakes, you lock profit regardless of what the batter actually does on the basepaths.
The Math, Plain English
An arb works when the combined implied probabilities of both sides sum to less than 100%. FanDuel's +1260 implies:
Implied prob (Over) = 100 / (1260 + 100) = 7.35%
For a 2.61% arb to exist, the Under side on Novig needs to imply roughly 90% or less when you do the combined math. That leaves the total implied probability sitting around 97.4% — meaning the books disagree enough that covering both sides is profitable.
Stake allocation:
Use the standard arb staking formula. If you're working with a $1,000 total bankroll across both sides:
- FanDuel (Over, +1260): Stake approximately $73.50
- Novig (Under): Stake approximately $926.50
At those splits, here's what happens:
- If the Over hits: FanDuel pays out $73.50 × 13.60 = ~$999.60 net, while you lose the Novig stake. Net profit ≈ $26.10.
- If the Under hits: Novig pays out on your Under stake. Net profit ≈ $26.10.
Either way, roughly $26 on $1,000 deployed — that's your 2.61%.
The percentages aren't headline-grabbing. They're not supposed to be. This is risk-free capture, not a handicapping contest.
Why This Arb Exists
Sportsbooks don't price in a vacuum, and they definitely don't price stolen base props with the same rigor they apply to moneylines.
A few dynamics that create gaps like this one:
Prop markets are soft. Books like FanDuel are built to attract recreational bettors. They make their money on volume and on the average bettor not shopping lines. Stolen base props — especially at long-shot prices like +1260 — don't get the same odds compiler attention as a game total or a run line. A sharp disagreement can persist for hours.
No-vig exchanges find fair value faster. Novig operates as a peer-to-peer exchange where sharps and recreational bettors match directly. There's no house margin baked in, which means prices equilibrate toward true probability more quickly. When FanDuel's implied odds are meaningfully out of step with what the exchange market says, arb windows open.
Speed of line movement differs. A sharp bet at Novig or Pinnacle moves a line within seconds. FanDuel's retail-facing props can lag by minutes or longer, especially on obscure same-game markets. That lag is the arb window.
Why Novig for the Other Side
You could technically look for the Under at another retail book. But there are real reasons to route the cleaner side through Novig specifically:
No vig means better prices. A traditional book charges juice on both sides — you're fighting the house cut before you even think about edge. Novig's exchange model removes that. The price you see is closer to true fair value, which is exactly what you need when you're already working with a 2.61% margin.
Limits don't get cut on arbers the same way. At DraftKings, FanDuel, or BetMGM, systematically winning — even on arbs — will eventually get your props limited to $20 per market. Novig's model is different: you're matched against another bettor, not the house. Their business model doesn't require them to limit winning players.
Exchange pricing is transparent. You see the actual market, not a managed number designed to steer action. For arb hunting, that transparency is worth something.
Execution Notes
A few things to keep in mind before you place:
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Move fast. Arbs on live props close quickly. FanDuel updates lines in real time and won't leave +1260 posted if they realize it's stale.
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Check the line is still up. By the time you read this, FanDuel may have adjusted. Never assume a prop price is live — always verify on the book directly before placing either leg.
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Stagger stakes carefully. Place the FanDuel leg first (the long-shot side), then immediately cover on Novig. If FanDuel pulls the line after you've bet one side, you're exposed.
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Account for withdrawal and deposit friction. Arb profit at 2.61% doesn't leave room for fees. Make sure your Novig account is funded and your FanDuel balance is ready to go.
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This is a high-frequency game. Individual arbs at 2.61% are not retirement money. Serious arbers run 10-20 opportunities simultaneously and reinvest constantly. The edge compounds across volume.
Bottom Line
FanDuel is mispriced on a stolen base Over at +1260. Novig's exchange market doesn't agree. That disagreement is worth 2.61% to anyone willing to cover both sides in the next few minutes.
The math is clean. The execution window is short. If you're not already set up on Novig, that's the first step — it's where sharp prop coverage lives for exactly these situations, and unlike your FanDuel account, they're not going to cut your limits for knowing what you're doing.
Lock it. Move to the next one.