The Setup
theScore Bet has a batter total bases Over priced at +170. That's a juicy number for a prop that sharp books typically price closer to even-money territory. Whenever you see a regional or secondary sportsbook hanging +170 on a side that the market has materially shorter, you check the other side. In this case, the other side is available on Novig, the no-vig peer-to-peer exchange — and the spread between the two prices is wide enough to lock in 4.66% regardless of outcome.
Let's walk through exactly how that works.
The Math, Step by Step
An arbitrage requires that the sum of the implied probabilities on both sides falls below 100%. When it does, you can size your bets so that the payout on either outcome exceeds your total stake.
theScore Bet: Over +170
Convert American odds to implied probability:
+170 → 100 / (170 + 100) = 100 / 270 = 37.04%
Novig: Under (the opposite side)
For the arb to yield 4.66%, the Under side needs to be priced such that its implied probability brings the combined book to roughly 95.34% (i.e., 100% minus the profit margin).
Combined implied probability = 37.04% + X% = 95.34%
X = 58.30% → implied price ≈ -140
So you're looking at roughly -140 on the Under on Novig's exchange. That's a legitimate market price for this prop — not an anomaly on their side, just a reflection of where sharp money actually sits.
Total combined book: ~95.34% Arb margin: 4.66%
Stake Sizing
To guarantee equal profit on either outcome, stakes need to be proportional to each side's implied probability. Here's a clean example using a $1,000 total outlay:
| Side | Book | Odds | Stake | Payout | |------|------|------|-------|--------| | Over | theScore Bet | +170 | $368 | $993.60 | | Under | Novig | -140 | $632 | $983.43 |
Both payouts clear your $1,000 total stake by roughly $46-47, which is your 4.66% locked return. You don't need the batter to go over or under anything — you need both bets to get down before the line moves.
Note: Exact payout figures will shift slightly with line movement. Recalculate before placing.
Why This Gap Exists
Player props — especially something as granular as batter total bases — have notoriously inconsistent pricing across books. A few reasons this arb surfaced:
1. Different sharp exposure. theScore Bet operates primarily in Canadian markets and a handful of U.S. states. Their total bases markets don't always attract the same volume of sharp action that the main runline or game total does. When a prop sits idle and sharp volume is thin, soft numbers persist longer.
2. Model divergence. Every sportsbook runs its own projection engine or licenses a third-party model. For granular player props, those models can disagree by 10-15 percentage points on the same outcome — and that disagreement is exactly what creates exploitable spreads.
3. Slow line movement on props. Books like Pinnacle move quickly when sharp money hits because their whole business model is built around accepting sharp action and adjusting. A regional book like theScore Bet may not have the same real-time calibration, especially on a mid-tier prop market.
The result: you get +170 from one source and can immediately lay it off at -140 on an exchange. The house doesn't matter anymore. You're betting against other users, not a margin-padded book.
Why Novig Is the Right Side of This Trade
You can theoretically lay the Under at a traditional sportsbook. But here's what happens when you do that repeatedly and successfully: limits get cut, accounts get flagged, bonuses disappear. Sportsbooks are not in the business of facilitating sharp two-way action — they're in the business of managing risk and protecting their edge.
Novig is structured differently. It's a peer-to-peer exchange — no house on the other side of your bet, no vig baked into the price. The odds you see reflect what the market will actually bear, because you're trading against other bettors. The practical implications for arb players:
- No arbitrary limits on winning accounts. You're not a liability to the exchange; you're providing liquidity.
- Exchange pricing is cleaner. Without a built-in margin, the Under side of this prop is priced more accurately than you'd find at a traditional -vig book trying to shade toward its hold.
- Sustainable volume. If you run this strategy across dozens of props per week, you need a place that won't cut you off after month two. That's what the exchange model gives you.
Execution Notes
A few things that matter when you're actually putting this on:
Speed is real. A 4.66% arb on a player prop is not going to sit for hours. Once the market notices theScore Bet's +170, it either gets bet down or matched. Have your Novig account funded and ready before you go looking for the theScore side.
Watch for correlated line movement. If theScore moves to +155 before you get the bet down, recalculate. The arb may shrink to 2-3% or disappear entirely. Don't chase a number that's no longer there.
Prop limits at theScore Bet. Regional books sometimes have lower max bets on player props, particularly for lesser-known batters. Know your ceiling on the +170 side before you size up the Novig leg.
Juice on the exchange. Novig's fee structure is exchange-based, so confirm the exact commission rate before finalizing your stake math. Even a small taker fee changes the net.
Bottom Line
A 4.66% guaranteed return on a baseball prop bet isn't something you find by accident — it's a consequence of two books pricing the same outcome with fundamentally different models and different levels of sharp input. theScore Bet is showing a +170 that the broader market doesn't support. Novig's exchange reflects where real money actually wants to be.
The math holds, the logic holds, and the execution path is straightforward if you move quickly. If you're not already set up on the exchange side, that's the first step — get your Novig account live here before you start hunting for theScore's next mispriced prop.